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Home / Tips and Tricks / Is there going to be a second wave of COVID-19? This is what we know about coronavirus cases

Is there going to be a second wave of COVID-19? This is what we know about coronavirus cases



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Now that businesses are starting to reopen and staying at home are slowly being lifted, many experts are warning that this can increase coronavirus infections.


Angela Lang / CNET

Visit the WHO website for the latest news and information on the coronavirus pandemic.

Will there be a second wave of the coronavirus and, if so, when will it strike? That is the question for many, as continue to lift lock restrictions and people come into contact with each other more than in weeks. Because the coronavirus is a highly contagious pathogen that spreads through breath and saliva, experts urge lawmakers to look for a second & # 39; peak & # 39;, a surge in cases that don't meet a full second & # 39; golf & # 39 ;. [19659006] There is still much that doctors and scientists do not know about the coronavirus that infected nearly 6 million people and claimed nearly 400,000 lives, but most experts agree that until we have an effective coronavirus vaccine the only way to slow down the spread of the virus is to take precautions such as social distance wearing face masks in public and wash hands correctly and often . Some public health experts say it is too early to reopen businesses and resume social activities, such as going to the beach and visiting theme parks even with limited capacity. Others argue that cities should reopen to keep the economy running and protective health measures will limit the transmission of coronavirus in restaurants, schools, shopping centers, and on airplanes. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have also released guidelines to assist local governments in identifying stages of reopening and interim suggestions for restaurants, schools and industry.

The full extent of the short- and long-term effects of the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease causing it is still unknown, including how long you may be immune after you recover and whether it is possible to become infected again. Nor is it clear how governments would respond to a wave of coronavirus infections, although some countries, such as Lebanon and South Korea, have already introduced block orders in areas where the virus appears to be resurfacing.

This story provides an overview to keep you informed of the current discussion. It will be regularly updated in the light of new and changing information from health officials, world leaders and the scientific community, and is not intended as a medical reference.

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What defines a & # 39; second wave & # 39; of an illness? Can there be more? In general, a "wave" in a pandemic is a period of increasing disease transmission after an overall decline. While the rate of coronavirus continues to increase in some parts of the US, the number of new infections currently appears to be decreasing across the country. The same mix of upward and downward trends can be seen worldwide, prompting World Health Organization Executive Director Mike Ryan to estimate that we are "in the middle of the first wave." If and when infection rates have declined across the board, then begin to rise again, it will indicate the next or "second wave." The longer the pandemic continues, the more waves are likely to occur.

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Different parts of the country are lifting lockdown orders at their own pace, including the decision when to open non-essential companies.


Angela Lang / CNET

A wave can be made from smaller wrinkles or 'peaks'

The coronavirus pandemic has not affected all parts of the country in the same way or at the same time. Cities and states went into lockdown and quarantine at different times and that's also how the country is starting to get out, with different areas easing restrictions in stages and at their own pace.

Some Health Experts have warned that the lack of a uniform reopening plan can help promote the spread of the coronavirus and even fuel a second wave when people travel from the worst affected areas to places with far fewer infections. Ali Khan, a former CDC official, said that a second wave could involve many simultaneous, smaller outbreaks that together look more like a single wave.

Peaks in new cases of coronavirus have already been documented in areas emerging from the occlusion. Wisconsin, for example, experienced its greatest increase in new infections and deaths in one day exactly two weeks after the state's Supreme Court overturned the governor's home warrant. Georgia, which was one of the first states to begin lifting lockdown orders, is starting to see gains in new cases after several weeks of plateau.

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When could the second wave of coronavirus strike?

As countries and states begin to ease lock restrictions, health officials around the world are already looking for rising infection rates that may signal a second wave of coronavirus-related diseases. . Most public health experts – including the director of the CDC, Dr. Robert Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease – anticipate the next major revival to occur this fall or winter. [19659007] Why then? Flu cases drop in the summer, leading some health experts to hope that COVID-19 cases also decrease as the weather warms. Dr. Amesh Adalja, a pandemic preparedness expert at Johns Hopkins University, told the Los Angeles Times that other coronaviruses do not do well in the summer months because, once outside the body, both the higher temperatures dry them out and the ultraviolet light of sunnier weather affects them.

However, a study published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal provides data suggesting that this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 seems insensitive to temperature differences and is only slightly affected by humidity. An outbreak in the ongoing struggle of Mumbai and Indonesia to curb the virus highlighted how the pandemic is hitting countries in climate zones, including many regions at or near the equator.

It may be that autumn and winter changes may occur as a result of reopenings of economies and people approaching and transmitting the infection again, but that reasoning is pure speculation and not the result of scientific research. We will have to wait to see what really happens.

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While some experts hope that like many other viruses, the corona virus disappears during hotter, sunnier weather, new research suggests temperature does not affect the virus.


Patrick Holland / CNET

Could the second wave be worse than the first?

If there is a second wave of coronavirus, the severity of the outbreak would depend on multiple factors, such as how well people keep social distance and how many people wear face masks . The widespread availability of tests may also play a role, in addition to contract tracking for anyone who tests positive.

For example, a recent study and computer model developed under De Kai, a computer scientist with appointments from both the University of California at Berkeley and Hong Kong University, suggests that if 80% of the population wore face masks in public, coronavirus transmission rates would drop (pdf) to about 8% compared to not wearing masks.

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Most experts agree that extensive testing will be needed to curb outbreaks while we are waiting for a coronavirus vaccine.


James Martin / CNET
In short, the more measures there are to help reduce disease transmission – and the more effectively those measures are followed – the lower the infection rate can be the second time, according to the computer model.

Other factors that could play a role are possible genetic mutations in the coronavirus that could make it more or less transmissible, the development of an effective vaccine the development of safe, effective treatments for COVID-19 disease and the ability to test a large proportion of the population, even those who do not appear to be ill.

Will there be a lockdown?

It is possible. Decisions on future quarantines are up to heads of government working with health officials, but there is an indication that the need may arise.

In some parts of the world that have experienced a second wave of coronavirus infections after the removal of lockdown restrictions, such measures have been restored. About a month ago Singapore Hong Kong, the Japanese island of Hokkaido and some parts of China withdrew all shielding measures to combat a second case of rising infection rates. More recently, Lebanon and South Korea have also reduced such orders.

Until there is an effective vaccine it is possible that different parts of the world will see fluctuating degrees of lockdown as governments adjust their response to the ongoing fight against the coronavirus.

Perhaps the most pressing questions of all are what a second wave of coronavirus could mean to you. Here's how we think that life will quarantine ends when the audience braces for a second wave. If you do have to leave the house, here are some practical ways to stay safe when you go out . Finally, don't unlearn all the good habits that you developed during the pandemic – like washing your hands often.


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