- Theresa May is preparing to make his Brexit agreement one vote for the third time this week.
- The House of Commons rejected its deal with 149 votes on Tuesday but Downing Street hopes the new threat of a prolonged Brexit delay will convince Eurosceptic conservative MPs to back it.
- Lack of support from potential workers, who are aware of an opportunity to force a softer Brexit if they defeat their agreement, means that May is probably going to a third defeat
- Downing Street is already considering a fourth Brexit vote in the near future weeks.
The House of Commons voted on Thursday to seek an Article 50 extension, which, if approved by EU Member States, will delay the UK's resignation until June 30 if maize agreement is approved by Wednesday, and for much longer about it It is not. Brexit was originally scheduled to take place on March 29th.
This means that a third vote on the Prime Minister's agreement will be held next week, presumably on Tuesday, handing over pro-leave MPs who voted against the agreement twice a last chance to avoid a prolonged Brexit delay.
There is a growing belief in Westminster that the prime minister may even try to hold a fourth meaningful vote in the next few weeks if it is rejected with a narrow accuracy next week.
So what is likely to change?
The Democratic Unionist Party, which proclaims the Mayor, plus most conservative conservatives, voted against the deal because of their continued opposition to the Irish backstop. This is a disputed part of the revocation agreement designed to prevent border controls from arising between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Downing Street had hoped that Advocate General Geoffrey Cox, the supreme lawyer of the government, would change his legal view of the Irish backstop to clarify that it would not lock the UK into an EU customs union indefinitely. But he failed to do so, which means that MEPs opposed the deal had no reason to climb down.
Cox is now ready to change its legal advice by suggesting that the UK could end the backstop under the Vienna Convention regulating international treaties, by proposing a "change of circumstances" would allow Britain to abandon the backstop if the EU made it permanent.
There is widespread skepticism in legal circles that the United Kingdom could actually use the mechanism – the prominent legal commentary David Allen Green described it as the " legal equivalent" of conspiracy theory that Earth is actually flat – but it can provide enough protection for MPs looking for a reason to resume the affair.
Labor feels a chance to force softer Brexit
But there are about 20 lethal pro-Brexit Tories that are likely to oppose the deal in whatever form it exists, and eight remaining supporting parliamentarians who want to stop Brexit altogether and are It is unlikely to support it either.
That means that May will still have to rely on the votes of dozens of labor ministers to win the majority. Only three supported her hand this week, even though her government promised to give millions of pounds to their constituencies.
The problem for the prime minister is that many potential workers – there are about 25 – have a number of requirements, including a customs union, and now feel an opportunity to win them if corn agreement goes down.
David Lidington, de facto vice prime minister, said this week that MEPs would have the opportunity to discuss a new way forward at the beginning of next month, perhaps failing to get their deal through before that. This could include "guiding voices" on alternatives to corn business, including a softer Brexit, which labor market parameters would probably back off.
This means that May is probably on its way to a third defeat on its dealings next week, albeit with a narrow margin.
Does not exclude a fourth.
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