Some public health experts say it is too early to reopen businesses and societies, suggesting a resurgence is likely. Others argue that cities should reopen to keep the economy running and protective health measures.
The full extent of the short-term and long-term effects of theand the COVID-19 disease it causes are still unknown, including and if it is possible to become infected again. Nor is it clear how government leaders would respond to a wave of coronavirus infections, although some, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, have signaled that they will restore lockdown measures if necessary.
This story provides an overview to keep you informed of the current discussion. It will be regularly updated in the light of new and changing information from health officials, world leaders and the scientific community, and is not intended as a medical reference.
What defines a & # 39; second wave & # 39; of an illness? Can there be more? In general, a "wave" in a pandemic is a period of increasing disease transmission after an overall decline. While the number of coronavirus cases continues to increase in some parts of the US, the number of new infections seems to be decreasing in other parts of the country and most of the world, potentially ending the first 'wave' # 39; of the pandemic. If and when infection rates begin to rise again, it will indicate the next or "second wave." The longer the pandemic continues, the more waves are likely to occur.
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There could be a wave of smaller wrinkles
The coronavirus pandemic has not affected all parts of the country in the same way or at the same time. Cities and statesand that's also how the country is starting to get out, with different areas easing restrictions in phases and at their own pace.
Some Health Experts have warned that the lack of a uniform reopening plan can help promote the spread of the coronavirus and in fact fuel a second wave when people travel from the worst affected areas to places with far fewer infections. Ali Khan, a former CDC official, said that a second wave may involve many simultaneous, smaller outbreaks that together look more like a single wave.
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When could the second wave of coronavirus strike?
As countries and states begin to ease restrictions on locking, health officials around the world are already looking for rising infection rates that could signal a second wave of coronavirus-related diseases. . Most public health experts – including the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease – anticipate the next major revival this will happen fall or winter.
Why then? Flu cases drop in the summer, leading some health experts to hope that COVID-19 cases also decrease as the weather warms. Dr. Amesh Adalja, a pandemic preparedness expert at Johns Hopkins University, told the Los Angeles Times that other corona viruses don't fare well in the summer months because, once outside the body, both the higher temperatures dry them out and the ultraviolet light of sunnier weather affects them.
However, a recent study published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal provides data suggesting that this particular coronavirus,is insensitive to temperature differences and is only slightly affected by humidity. The recent outbreak in Mumbai and Indonesia's ongoing struggle to curb the virus show how the pandemic affects countries in climate zones, including many regions at or near the equator.
It may be that autumn and winter changes may occur as a result of reopening economies and people approaching and transmitting the infection again, but that reasoning is pure speculation and not the result of scientific research. We will have to wait to see what really happens.
Could the second wave be worse than the first?
If there is a second wave of coronavirus, the severity of the outbreak would depend on multiple factors, such as how well people keep social distance and how. The may also play a role, in addition to contract tracking for anyone who tests positive.
For example, a recent study and computer model developed by De Kai, a computer scientist with appointments from both the University of California at Berkeley and Hong Kong University, suggests that if 80% of the population wore face masks in public, coronavirus transmission rates would drop (pdf) to about 8% compared to not wearing masks.